Elon Musk’s worst nightmare, Missy Cummings, is now tormenting Waymo and Cruise too

https://www.autoblog.com/2023/10/14/elon-musk-s-worst-nightmare/


Missy Cummings flew fighter jets for the Navy. Now, as a leading expert on automation and AI, she’s taking aim at self-driving cars.
Chelsea Jia Feng/Insider

In 2021, an engineer named Missy Cummings drew the ire of Elon Musk on the social network then called Twitter. A professor at Duke University, Cummings had conducted research on the safety of self-driving cars, and the findings led her to issue some stark warnings about Tesla’s driver-assistance tech. The cars, she wrote, had “variable and often unsafe behaviors” that required more testing “before such technology is allowed to operate without humans in direct control.” On the strength of her research, Cummings was appointed to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration — to help with regulation of robot cars.

Tesla fans reacted with their usual equanimity and sense of perspective, by which I mean they absolutely lost it. Their insistence that Cummings would attempt to unfairly regulate their boy Elon soon prompted Musk himself to join the thread. “Objectively,” he tweeted, “her track record is extremely biased against Tesla.” In response, Musk’s stans unleashed their full fury on Cummings — her work, her appearance, her motives. They accused her of conflicts of interest, signed petitions demanding her removal, and emailed death threats.

But the thing is, Musk’s bros of war were messing with the wrong engineer. As one of the Navy’s first female fighter pilots, Cummings used to fly F/A-18s. (Call sign: Shrew.) She wasn’t intimidated by the dick-wagging behavior of a few people on Twitter with anime profile pics. She posted the worst threats on LinkedIn, hired some personal security, and kept right on fighting. “I’m like, are you really going to do this?” she recalls thinking. “I double down. The fighter pilot in me comes out. I love a good fight.”

She didn’t exactly win that particular engagement. A lot of whinging from Tesla pushed NHTSA to force Cummings to recuse herself from anything involving the company. But you know what they say about any landing you can walk away from. Cummings took a new gig at George Mason University and broadened her research from Tesla to the wider world of all self-driving vehicles. With companies like Cruise and Waymo unleashing fully roboticized taxis on the streets of San Francisco and other cities, the rise of the machines has begun — and Cummings is on the front lines of the resistance. In a controversial new paper, she concludes that the new robot taxis are four to eight times as likely as a human-driven car to get into a crash. And that doesn’t count the way self-driving vehicles are causing weird traffic jams, blocking emergency vehicles, and even stopping on top of a person who had already been hit by a human-driven car.

“In the paper that really pissed all the Tesla trolls off, I actually say that this is not just a Tesla problem — that Tesla is the first one to experience the problems,” Cummings tells me. “For years I have been telling people this was going to happen, that these problems would show up in self-driving. And indeed they are. If anyone in the self-driving car community is surprised, that’s on them.”

It turns out that serving in the Navy is a very good way to train for inbound ire from Muskovites. In her 1999 memoir, “Hornet’s Nest,” Cummings recalls how she loved flying jets, and says the excitement of getting catapulted off an aircraft carrier — or landing on one — never got old. But the environment was far from welcoming. Sexual harassment in the Navy was routine, and male colleagues repeatedly told Cummings she wasn’t qualified to fly fighters simply because she was a woman. When she and another female officer showed up at a golf tournament on base, they were told to put on Hooters uniforms and drive the beer carts. Cummings declined. 

Flying tactical engines of destruction also provided Cummings with a firsthand lesson in the hidden dangers of machines, automation, and user interfaces. On her first day of training, two pilots were killed. On her last day, the Navy experienced the worst training disaster that had ever taken place aboard a carrier. In all, during the three years that Cummings flew, 36 people died in accidents.

In 2011, while conducting research on robot helicopters for the Navy, Cummings had an epiphany. Even surrounded by nothing but air, those helos were far from perfect — and they relied on the same sensors that self-driving cars do while operating right next to cars and people. “When I got in deep on the capabilities of those sensors,” Cummings says, “that’s when I woke up and said, whoa, we have a serious problem in cars.”

Some of the dangers are technical. People get distracted, self-driving systems get confused in complicated environments, and so on. But other dangers, Cummings says, are more subtle — “sociotechnical,” as she puts it. What she calls the “hypermasculine culture in Silicon Valley” intertwines with Big Tech’s mission statement to “move fast and break things.” Both bro culture and a disruptive mindset, as she sees it, incentivize companies to gloss over safety risks. 

All of which makes it even tougher for women when they level the kind of critiques that Cummings has. “When Elon Musk sicced his minions on me, the misogyny about me as a woman, my name — it got very dark very quickly,” she recalls. “I think the military has made a lot of strides, but I do think that’s what’s happening in these Silicon Valley companies is just a reminder that we haven’t come as far in our society as I thought we would have.”

An example: Last month, the head of safety at Waymo touted a new study from his company on LinkedIn. The research was unpublished and had not undergone peer review. But Waymo used the study to argue that its robot cars were actually much less likely to get into crashes than cars driven by biological organisms like you and me.

a white car blocks a line of cars waiting behind it on a city street. It's a Waymo self-driving taxi.
A self-driving taxi from Waymo blocks traffic in San Francisco. “They got complacent,” says Cummings. “They lost their safety culture.”
Terry Chea/AP

Cummings wasn’t having it. She had her new results — also still in preprint — which showed self-driving taxis to be way more crash-prone. So she went on LinkedIn, too, and said so.

The response was familiar to her from her days in the Navy. Kyle Vogt, the CEO of Cruise, slid into the comments. “I’d love to help you with this analysis,” he wrote to Cummings, questioning her number-crunching. “Would be great to connect and discuss this further.”

Cummings responded in kind. “I’d love to help you with your understanding of basic statistics, use of computer vision, and what it means to be a safe and responsible CEO of a company,” she wrote. “Call anytime.”

Women, she figures, caught her vibe. “Every woman who read that was like: Mmm-hmm, you go,” Cummings says. But men — friends in Silicon Valley — did not. They thought she had been too mean to Vogt. “He was just trying to help you,” they told her.

“All the guys read it like: She’s such a shrew!” Cummings says. But, ever the fighter pilot, she was unfazed. “That’s how I got my call sign,” she says. “So I live with it.”

So who’s right: Cummings, or the self-driven men of Waymo and Cruise and Tesla? It’s hard to tell, for a simple reason: The data on the safety of robot cars sucks. 

Take Cummings’ approach in her new paper. First she had to wrestle with NHTSA’s nationwide data for nonfatal crashes by human drivers, to get numbers she could compare to California, the only place where the robot cars run free. Then she had to figure out comparable nonfatal crash numbers and miles traveled for Waymo and Cruise, tracked by divergent sources. Her conclusion: Cruise has eight nonfatal crashes for every human one, and Waymo has four — comparable to the crash rates of the fatigued and overworked drivers at ride-hail services like Uber and Lyft.

The purveyors of robot taxis argue that Cummings is wrong for a bunch of reasons. Chiefly, they say, the numbers for human crashes are actually undercounts. (Lots of fender benders, for instance, go unreported.) Plus, crash numbers for the whole country, or even just California, can’t be compared to those for San Francisco, which is way denser and hillier than the state as a whole. Looked at that way, Cruise argued in a recent blog post, its taxis have been involved in 54% fewer crashes than cars driven by humans. The company also maintains that ride-hail drivers get into one nonfatal crash for every 85,027 miles of driving — 74% more collisions than Cruise’s robots.

Cummings ain’t buying it. A blog post isn’t science; it’s a press release. “Every company has a fiscal interest in getting a paper out that makes them look good, and in the case of Cruise it makes rideshare drivers look bad,” she says. “So that’s what they’re doing.” This is exactly the sort of sociotechnical culture that Cummings is criticizing — that she’s uniquely qualified to criticize.

Other experts also discount Cruise’s claims, coming as they do from folks who are incentivized to welcome our new robot overlords. “If we were to believe the numbers Cruise is putting out there for ride-hailing drivers, those drivers would be having on average two crashes per year,” says Steven Shladover, a research engineer at UC Berkeley’s Institute of Transportation Studies. “How many drivers have two crashes every year? That is pretty extreme.”

But Shladover is also skeptical of the numbers crunched by Cummings. “Missy is assuming a human driver crash rate that’s too low for San Francisco, and Cruise is showing a human crash rate that’s too high,” he says. “The reality is probably somewhere in between.”

So maybe Cummings is right, and self-driving cars are a menace. Or maybe it’s not quite as bad as her new paper suggests. Until robot cars have traveled for hundreds of millions of miles, there’s no way to get a statistically significant, unequivocal conclusion. But the bottom line is: It shouldn’t matter. When the data on a product or device’s safety is equivocal, regulatory agencies are supposed to make and enforce rules that protect consumers, just as they do in other industries. If the data on robot cars is equivocal or incomplete, then those rules should keep them off the road. The burden of proof is on Waymo and Cruise and Tesla, not Missy Cummings. And if those companies want to put 2-ton robots on public streets, blogging about data benchmarks isn’t the way to show people they’re ready.

“One of the big things I’m on about now, pulling from my aviation years, is that all these companies need a chief AI pilot,” Cummings says. “They need to have somebody, one person, who stands up and says, ‘I’m responsible.’ We do that right now for aviation. That’s why so many heads rolled with the problems that happened with the Boeing 737 Max. They got complacent. They lost their safety culture.”

Cummings is a careful researcher. She’s also, as one transport-safety researcher put it privately, “provocative.” She is more than happy to strafe companies like Tesla and Waymo and Cruise, and to argue that tech bros need to be brought inside a stricter regulatory framework. In a sense, she’s Elon Musk’s worst nightmare. She has repeatedly and routinely risked her life to test the incredible capabilities — and the lethal limits — of human-machine interfaces. And she did it in an environment where the stakes are far higher than the battlefields of Twitter and LinkedIn. To her, the safety of self-driving cars is not an abstract question. It’s a matter of life and death.

“I’m a tenured professor. My work speaks for itself. I’m trying to save your life, right?Cummings says. “And there’s the side of me where I’m like Don Quixote on steroids. There’s no windmill I don’t want to tilt at.”

Adam Rogers is a senior correspondent at Insider.

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October 14, 2023 at 08:08AM

Woman’s Experimental Bionic Hand Passes Major Test With Flying Colors

https://gizmodo.com/bionic-mia-hand-prosthetic-amputee-phantom-pain-1850919751


Scientists appear to have developed a hand prosthetic that provides much more control and comfort than those available today. In new research this week, they’ve detailed the case of a Swedish woman who has successfully worn the advanced bionic limb for years with no major issues, while experiencing significantly less pain than before.

Google’s Pixel 8 and 8 Pro are New, and Somewhat Improved

The woman, identified as Karin, suffered a farming injury that took much of her right arm below the elbow over 20 years ago. Like many amputees, Karin went on to develop phantom limb pain, which required her to take high doses of medication to manage. She also benefited little from conventional prosthetics, finding them too unwieldy to use for daily life. But several years ago, Karin became one of the first patients enrolled in the DeTOP project, an expansive research study funded by the European Union and involving dozens of scientists across Europe that’s looking to develop the next generation of bionic limbs.

Another demonstration of the Mia Hand.
Image: Ortiz-Catalan et al/Science Robotics

Karin’s prosthesis was created by the Italian company Presilia and is nicknamed Mia Hand. It’s outfitted with state-of-art technology, including AI. And to further improve its functionality, her surgeons performed osseointegration during the attachment procedure, a process that directly fuses bone to the implant, ideally creating a stronger mechanical connection. They also implanted electrodes in her arm muscles and nerves, as well as rewired some of her nerves in the remaining part of the arm. The result is a robotic limb that’s directly connected to Karin’s neuromusculoskeletal system.

Much like a real flesh-and-blood hand, it’s controlled by Karin’s nervous system and provides sensory feedback. Her new hand can purportedly perform around 80% of the typical daily tasks that a regular limb would be able to do. And it’s substantially reduced her phantom limb pain and the need for medication. The team’s findings on Mia Hand’s initial success are published in the journal Science Robotics.

“Karin was the first person with below-elbow amputation who received this new concept of a highly integrated bionic hand that can be used independently and reliably in daily life,” said lead study author Max Ortiz-Catalan, head of neural prosthetics research at the Bionics Institute in Australia, in a statement from the Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, one of the many other universities involved in the project.

Bionic hand merges with user’s nervous and skeletal systems, remaining functional after years

He added: ”The fact that she has been able to use her prosthesis comfortably and effectively in daily activities for years is a promising testament to the potential life-changing capabilities of this novel technology for individuals facing limb loss.”

Karin is one of three patients enrolled in the DeTOP project. And while it may take time for the research on these patients to reach completion, the hope is that these prosthetics can eventually become the new standard for upper limb amputees. For Karin, it’s already been a tremendous gift.

“For me, this research has meant a lot, as it has given me a better life,” she said in the university release.

via Gizmodo https://gizmodo.com

October 12, 2023 at 06:47AM

How To Colonise Mars 101

https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/how-to-colonise-mars-101


Sending humans to Mars has always seemed a distant dream. But in recent years, cheap access to space, the steady arrival of Mars rovers to explore the surface and the ambitions of billionaires like Elon Musk have made the Red Planet feel almost within reach.

All concerned are aware of the huge challenges — from developing the technology to support life during the journey and to safely deliver them to the surface, to bringing them home again. This will be one of the greatest expeditions in human history.

But there is another challenge beyond that is of even greater proportions — the task of colonizing the Red Planet once we get there. Colonization is crucial, say proponents, to create a technology goal for humanity to work towards, to give us greater insight into the nature of the Solar System and ultimately, to create a back-up should we destroy the climate on Earth.

There is no question that this will be a difficult endeavor, perhaps the most difficult that humans have ever undertaken. But the scale and nature of this challenge is poorly understood.

Prospective Colonizers

Now Florian Neukart at the Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science in the Netherlands has compiled a comprehensive list of challenges for prospective Mars colonizers along with potential solutions aimed at making the colony self-sustaining. The work, he says, is “a foundational guide for researchers, policymakers, and visionaries aiming to make humanity’s interplanetary future a reality.”

The difficulties in colonizing Mars are legion and Neukart first highlights its vast distance from Earth. That will make resupply missions infrequent and ensure that radio communication has a latency of between 5 and 20 minutes depending on the distance between the two bodies. “Given the prolonged mission durations, immense distances, and resource constraints, traditional “Earth-reliant” approaches to space exploration are not feasible for Martian colonization,” says Neukart.

Then there is the harsh Martian environment, where the temperature varies between a balmy 20 degrees C in summer to -125 degrees C at the poles.

Mars also lacks a magnetic field and this exposes the surface to high levels of radiation from the Sun and from cosmic rays. And every five Earth years or so, Mars famously experiences dust storms that engulf the entire planet for weeks or months at a time.

Because of the thin atmosphere, these storms do not involve high winds like those on Earth. But the dust they spread is extremely fine, having the consistency of talcum powder, and this poses unique problems, such as covering solar panels or gumming up sensitive mechanisms not to mention making navigation tricky.

For each of these problems, Neukart examines the potential impact on humans and then lists forms of mitigation. For example, elevated radiation levels can cause cancer and radiation sickness in humans while also impacting fertility.

Making habitats out of materials that shield from radiation will be important. These materials include hydrogen-rich substances such as water, polyethylene, or hydrogen-rich boron nitride nanotubes. Underground habitats will also provide protection and various drugs are available that can limit the effect of radiation on humans or boost repair mechanisms.

Researchers have also begun to work out how to make concrete on Mars using widely available sulfur as a binding agent. That should be sustainable but raises questions about its durability and its potential toxicity for humans, which may require it to be covered by other layers.

Humans will need power, potentially from solar panels, although there is about half as much sunlight in mars compared to Earth. Nuclear is another option but the low density of the atmosphere makes wind power less useful.

Water Hunt

And no small challenge will be finding water, which is thought to be abundant in frozen form beneath the surface. Growing food in the absence of soil or suitable atmosphere will also be difficult.

Neukart raises the prospect of plants grown using aeroponics — growth without soil by misting the roots with nutrient-rich water. Other options include bioreactors for algae or indeed, any kind of cell that can be grown into food. These will need a constant source of feedstocks and nutrients though where these will come from is less clear.

The psychological impact of one-way trips to Mars should not be underestimated either. “The psychological stressors of living in such conditions — far removed from the familiar surroundings of our home planet — can lead to a myriad of issues, from depression and anxiety to interpersonal conflicts,” says Neukart.

Last but not least is the cost of this endeavor. Rocket launches, technology development, resupply and so on, are all costs that are hard to quantify but clearly lie on a scale beyond those of current space exploration.

But there are commercial opportunities too. Mars colonies could eventually generate income from tourism, from real estate development and from inter-planetary trade. Somebody someday is going to make a lot of money on Mars. “Mars colonization presents a frontier not just for scientific exploration but also for economic opportunities,” says Neukart.

That’s interesting work that begins to chart the scale of the endeavor. Neukart is the first to admit that significantly more work is needed to better understand these challenges.

But journeys like this are only made one step at a time and Neukart appears optimistic: “As the contours of space exploration in the 21st century become sharper focus, Mars emerges not as a distant, aspirational target but as a tangible frontier for human colonization.” Good luck!


Ref: Towards Sustainable Horizons: A Comprehensive Blueprint for Mars Colonization : arxiv.org/abs/2309.16806

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October 12, 2023 at 10:10AM

New proteins, better batteries: Scientists are using AI to speed up discoveries

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/10/12/1205201928/artificial-intelligence-ai-scientific-discoveries-proteins-drugs-solar

AI similar to the kind used to make images is now being used to design synthetic proteins. Scientists say its radically sped up their research.

New artificial intelligence tools are being rapidly developed across the sciences. They may not be able to solve every problem, but in some cases, they’re shortening the time to new breakthroughs.

(Image credit: Ian C Haydon/ UW Institute for Protein Design)

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October 12, 2023 at 04:18AM

NASA’s Astrobee robot ‘Honey’ flies home to its International Space Station hive

https://www.space.com/nasa-astrobee-robot-international-space-station-return


NASA’s yellow robotic bee is back at its space hive.

The yellow Astrobee free-flying robot, part of a set of three, is safely working on the International Space Station (ISS) after a flight to and from Earth for repairs.

“After initial checks, Honey was able to independently disengage from its docking station, maneuver through the space station … and redock successfully without crew supervision,” agency officials wrote in an Oct. 6 update, referring to activities completed a few weeks before.

Related: Meet the Astrobees! These tiny, cube-shaped robots have arrived in space

Honey and robo-companions Bumble (colored in blue) and Queen (in green) are cube-shaped robots designed to take some maintenance load off of astronauts, through activities like documenting experiments or taking inventory, agency officials said in 2016.

“In addition, the system serves as a research platform that can be outfitted and programmed to carry out experiments in microgravity — helping us to learn more about how robotics can benefit astronauts in space,” NASA officials wrote at the time.

The Astrobee fleet, managed by NASA’s Ames Research Center, first arrived on the ISS in 2019 aboard two separate cargo ship deliveries. It has engaged astronauts, researchers and students with mid-air maneuvers and autonomous flight. 

Honey returned to Earth for a two-year pit stop, however, on the SpaceX CRS-23 spacecraft in September 2021, according to NASA, before its relaunch to space aboard a Northrop Grumman Cygnus ship in August 2023. 

Re-activation of Honey was supervised by NASA’s Woody Hoburg, a SpaceX Crew-6 astronaut who returned to Earth with the rest of his crew on Sept. 4, 2023. It wasn’t the first time Hoburg played with the hardware; he also worked with Astrobees during a ZeroRobotics competition hosted at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology this summer, he said in an Aug. 3 post on X (formerly Twitter).

NASA astronaut and Expedition 69 Flight Engineer Woody Hoburg monitors an Astrobee robotic free-flyer in the Kibo laboratory module testing its operations in conjunction with mission controllers. The robotics work is being done to demonstrate ways to control the free-flyers using student-written code that recognizes multiple gestures. (Image credit: NASA/JSC)

The cube-shaped robot set includes software and a docking system for recharging. They move through the space station using electric fans, relying on cameras and sensors for navigation. A perching arm on each robot lets them grasp on to handrails around the ISS to grab things, or to catch a brief rest.

As of April 2022, Astrobees had accomplished 750 hours and 100 activities of research on the ISS, according to NASA officials. They are also being tested for future ideas: For example, they once found an anomaly during a simulated issue in space.

Aside from space station research, Astrobees are used by students and guest scientists. “Since the robots are modular and can be upgraded, the system gives researchers and scientists diverse capabilities for performing a wide range of experiments inside the station,” NASA officials wrote in 2016.

Astrobee isn’t the first flying robot on the ISS. A previous generation of small freeflyers were called SPHERES, short for Synchronized Position Hold, Engage, Reorient, Experimental Satellite. NASA documentation and imagery suggests the experiment concluded in 2019, but Astrobee continues to build on the “lessons learned” from the two decades of research using SPHERES.

Join our Space Forums to keep talking space on the latest missions, night sky and more! And if you have a news tip, correction or comment, let us know at: community@space.com.

via Space https://www.space.com

October 11, 2023 at 08:09AM

OpenAI Apparently Wants to Make Its Own AI Chips on Top of the ‘iPhone for AI’

https://gizmodo.com/openai-wants-to-make-its-own-ai-chips-1850906306


Image: Ascannio (Shutterstock)

Due to a shortage of processors needed to run OpenAI’s intense software as well as the exorbitant costs associated with operating it, the makers of ChatGPT are reportedly considering making their own AI chips.

Why is Everyone Suing AI Companies? | Future Tech

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, has been relying on Nvidia for its chips ever since it came into existence. With more than 80% of the global market for AI chips captured, Nvidia has been enjoying the pseudo-monopoly that it holds in this field. However, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has recently commented on the scarcity of these chips. On Friday, sources that are familiar with the company’s plans told Reuters that Altman has been exploring the possibility of his company either getting into the chip business or acquiring a company that already makes them. He has also considered diversifying suppliers by working with companies other than Nvidia.

OpenAI uses a supercomputer by Microsoft which makes use of 10,000 Nvidia GPUs (Graphics Processing Units). According to Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, each ChatGPT query costs the company around 4 cents which could end up being an unimaginably huge amount as ChatGPT continues to grow.

Of course, the exorbitant costs of getting into the chip business represent a significant hurdle. Building its own AI chips will easily cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars and a couple of years. And that’s on top of reports that OpenAI is in discussions with former Apple designer Jony Ive regarding the possibility of building the “iPhone of AI”—a moonshot that would also surely require billions of dollars in investment.

When it comes to producing its own chips, the acquisition of a chip company does sound more doable for OpenAI. Both Google and Amazon are in control of designing the chips that run their businesses. Amazon accomplished that in 2015 by acquiring Annapurna Labs. Meta also explored this option and even came up with its own chip, but following several issues with the technology, the company has been working on a redesign.

In the meantime, OpenAI will remain dependent on incumbent giants of GPUs.

via Gizmodo https://gizmodo.com

October 6, 2023 at 10:40AM