Author: peterjang73

A new paper released Monday says that 80% of the U.S. workforce will see the impact of large language models on their work. While some will only experience a moderate amount of impact on their day to day workload, close to 20% of those working today will likely find about half of their tasks automated to some extent by AI.

The paper published by Cornell University was led by several OpenAI researchers working alongside a researcher at nonprofit lab OpenResearch, which is chaired by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. With the release of OpenAI’s latest version of its LLM, GPT-4, the company is already promoting how it can score well on tests like the Biology Olympiad, but this report also analyzes likely applications for AI that are capable with current LLM models. AI already has text and code-generation capabilities (even if AI developers are still trying to convince people to not trust content their AI creates), as well as the routinely discussed implications for art, speech, and video.

All in all, the paper strays from making any declarative statements about job impacts. It instead analyzes jobs that are more likely to have some “exposure” to AI generation, meaning it will take 50% less time to complete a job’s common task. All in all, most high-paying white collar work will find AI pushing into their fields. Those in science or “critical thinking” fields, as the paper calls it, will have less exposure, pointing to the modern AI’s utter limitations in creating novel content. Programmers and writers, on the other hand, are likely to see quite a lot of exposure.

Though the paper describes this “exposure” to AI without identifying if it has any real labor-displacing effects, it’s not easy to identify the companies who are already looking at AI as a way to reduce labor costs. CNET’s parent company Red Ventures has been held under the microscope for its use of AI-written articles, after it was discovered how inaccurate the articles often were. Earlier this month, CNET laid off around a dozen staffers. According to The Verge, the editor in chief Connie Guglielmo became the company’s senior VP of AI content strategy.

Of course, there’s a difference between white collar workers playing around with ChatGPT and the workplace demanding workers use a chatbot to automate their work. An IBM and Morning Consult survey from last year said 66% of companies worldwide are either using or exploring AI, and that was before the AI hype train took on more coal at the end of last year with ChatGPT. The survey said 42% of that adoption was driven by the need to reduce costs and “automate key processes.” You can very well argue that programmers and writers are often engaging in that previously mentioned “critical thinking” as much as any other subject, but will some managers and company owners think the same way if they’re told AI can help them reduce head counts?

And of course, your average blue collar job won’t see any real impact. The paper makes special mention of a few of these jobs, making oddly specific mention of derrick operators, cutlers, pile driver operators, and stonemasons. Those without higher education degrees will experience less impact by AI, and some of these unaffected jobs, like short order cooks or dishwashers, are already far on the lower end of the pay scale. It’s still unlikely that these jobs will be re-evaluated to finally think about offering these workers a living wage, even if other jobs may suffer.

And as these models improve over time, the effect will only grow. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has mentioned some more light-touch regulation, but the President Joe Biden administration’s own Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights mentions people should be able to “opt out” of AI systems in favor of human alternatives. The bill of rights does not really mention any ways to mitigate the impacts AI could have on the labor market. The report notes the “difficulty” of regulating AI because of its constant shifts, but it shies away from any noted general thoughts lawmakers could follow.

Sure, the paper doesn’t analyze the likelihood of a job being substituted by AI, but it doesn’t take much to get there. The paper describes most jobs by their simple “tasks” rather than their application, which is a problem when you’re trying to discuss whether an AI can perform at the same level as a human. Simply put, at this point, AI-generated content is nowhere near surpassing the quality or originality as human-created content. 

A report from the US-EU Trade and Technology Council published by the White House last December mentions AI can potentially “expos[e] large new swaths of the workforce to potential disruption.” The report mentioned while past automation impacted “routine” tasks, AI can impact “nonroutine” tasks. Now it’s up to employers just how much “nonroutine” tasks they think they still need actual humans to perform.

Damaged electric vehicles that have been written off by insurers are lined up at UK salvage company Synetiq’s yard in Doncaster, Britain. (Reuters)

 

LONDON/DETROIT — For many electric vehicles, there is no way to repair or assess even slightly damaged battery packs after accidents, forcing insurance companies to write off cars with few miles — leading to higher premiums and undercutting gains from going electric. 

And now those battery packs are piling up in scrapyards in some countries, a previously unreported and expensive gap in what was supposed to be a “circular economy.” 

“We’re buying electric cars for sustainability reasons,” said Matthew Avery, research director at automotive risk intelligence company Thatcham Research. “But an EV isn’t very sustainable if you’ve got to throw the battery away after a minor collision.” 

Battery packs can cost tens of thousands of dollars and represent up to 50% of an EV’s price tag, often making it uneconomical to replace them. 

While some automakers such as Ford and General Motors said they have made battery packs easier to repair, Tesla has taken the opposite tack with its Texas-built Model Y, whose new structural battery pack has been described by experts as having “zero repairability.” 

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment. 

A Reuters search of EV salvage sales in the U.S. and Europe shows a large portion of low-mileage Teslas, but also models from Nissan, Hyundai, Stellantis, BMW, Renault and others. 

 

“A Tesla structural battery pack is going straight to the grinder,” Sandy Munro said. 

 

EVs constitute only a fraction of vehicles on the road, making industry-wide data hard to come by, but the trend of low-mileage zero-emission cars being written off with minor damage is growing. Tesla’s decision to make battery packs “structural” – part of the car’s body – has allowed it to cut production costs but risks pushing those costs back to consumers and insurers. 

Tesla has not referred to any problems with insurers writing off its vehicles. But in January CEO Elon Musk said premiums from third-party insurance companies “in some cases were unreasonably high.” 

Unless Tesla and other carmakers produce more easily repairable battery packs and provide third-party access to battery cell data, already-high insurance premiums will keep rising as EV sales grow and more low-mileage cars get scrapped after collisions, insurers and industry experts said. 

“The number of cases is going to increase, so the handling of batteries is a crucial point,” said Christoph Lauterwasser, managing director of the Allianz Center for Technology, a research institute owned by Allianz. 

Lauterwasser noted EV battery production emits far more CO2 than fossil-fuel models, meaning EVs must be driven for thousands of miles before they offset those extra emissions. 

“If you throw away the vehicle at an early stage, you’ve lost pretty much all advantage in terms of CO2 emissions,” he said. 

Most carmakers said their battery packs are repairable, though few seem willing to share access to battery data. Insurers, leasing companies and car repair shops are already fighting with carmakers in the EU over access to lucrative connected-car data. 

Lauterwasser said access to EV battery data is part of that fight. Allianz has seen scratched battery packs where the cells inside are likely undamaged, but without diagnostic data it has to write off those vehicles. 

Ford and GM tout their newer, more repairable packs. But the new, large 4680 cells in the Model Y made at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, plant, are glued into a pack that forms part of the car’s structure and cannot be easily removed or replaced, experts said. 

In January, Tesla’s Musk said the carmaker has been making design and software changes to its vehicles to lower repair costs and insurance premiums. 

The company also offers its own insurance product in a dozen U.S. states to Tesla owners at lower rates. 

Insurers and industry experts also note that EVs, because they are loaded with all the latest safety features, so far have had fewer accidents than traditional cars. 

‘Straight to the grinder’ 

Sandy Munro, head of Michigan-based Munro & Associates, which tears down vehicles and advises automakers on how to improve them, said the Model Y battery pack has “zero repairability.” 

“A Tesla structural battery pack is going straight to the grinder,” Munro said. 

EV battery problems also expose a hole in the green “circular economy” touted by carmakers. 

At Synetiq, the UK’s largest salvage company, head of operations Michael Hill said over the last 12 months the number of EVs in the isolation bay – where they must be checked to avoid fire risk – at the firm’s Doncaster yard has soared, from perhaps a dozen every three days to up to 20 per day. 

“We’ve seen a really big shift and it’s across all manufacturers,” Hill said. 

The UK currently has no EV battery recycling facilities, so Synetiq has to remove the batteries from written-off cars and store them in containers. Hill estimated at least 95% of the cells in the hundreds of EV battery packs – and thousands of hybrid battery packs – Synetiq has stored at Doncaster are undamaged and should be reused. 

It already costs more to insure most EVs than traditional cars. 

According to online brokerage Policygenius, the average U.S. monthly EV insurance payment in 2023 is $206, 27% more than for a combustion-engine model. 

According to Bankrate, an online publisher of financial content, U.S. insurers know that “if even a minor accident results in damage to the battery pack … the cost to replace this key component may exceed $15,000.” 

A replacement battery for a Tesla Model 3 can cost up to $20,000, for a vehicle that retails at around $43,000 but depreciates quickly over time. 

Andy Keane, UK commercial motor product manager at French insurer AXA, said expensive replacement batteries “may sometimes make replacing a battery unfeasible.” 

There are a growing number of repair shops specializing in repairing EVs and replacing batteries. In Phoenix, Arizona, Gruber Motor Co has mostly focused on replacing batteries in older Tesla models. 

But insurers cannot access Tesla’s battery data, so they have taken a cautious approach, owner Peter Gruber said. 

“An insurance company is not going to take that risk because they’re facing a lawsuit later on if something happens with that vehicle and they did not total it,” he said. 

‘Pain points’ 

The British government is funding research into EV insurance “pain points” led by Thatcham, Synetiq and insurer LV=. 

Recently adopted EU battery regulations do not specifically address battery repairs, but they did ask the European Commission to encourage standards to “facilitate maintenance, repair and repurposing,” a commission source said. 

Insurers said they know how to fix the problem — make batteries in smaller sections, or modules, that are simpler to fix, and open diagnostics data to third parties to determine battery cell health. 

Individual U.S. insurers declined to comment. 

But Tony Cotto, director of auto and underwriting policy at the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, said “consumer access to vehicle-generated data will further enhance driver safety and policyholders’ satisfaction … by facilitating the entire repair process.” 

Lack of access to critical diagnostic data was raised in mid-March in a class action filed against Tesla in U.S. District Court in California. 

Insurers said failure to act will cost consumers. 

EV battery damage makes up just a few percent of Allianz’s motor insurance claims, but 8% of claims costs in Germany, Lauterwasser said. Germany’s insurers pool data on vehicle claims data and adjust premium rates annually. 

“If the cost for a certain model gets higher it will raise premium levels because the rating goes up,” Lauterwasser said. 

(Reporting by Nick Carey and Sarah McFarlane in London, Paul Lienert in Detroit, Gilles Guillaume in Paris and Giulio Piovaccari in MilanAdditional reporting by Victoria Waldersee in BerlinEditing by Ben Klayman and Matthew Lewis) 

If you thought Pokemon would be fun as a text adventure game, someone has used ChatGPT-4 to turn Pokemon Emerald into one.

As spotted by Polygon, Twitter user Dan Dangond has recently been using the newest version of the AI language model to turn Pokemon Emerald into a text-based adventure game. Dangond shared the discovery on Twitter, noting how you can just ask the software to play the game, and in a thread, observed how well it worked–and sometimes, how well it didn’t work.

The first tweet starting the Pokemon journey is almost like a speedrun, putting you right into the action where Emerald’s Professor Birch is being chased by a Poocheyena, prompting you to choose from the three starters. Dangon couldn’t have made a wrong choice with which starter, but did opt for Mudkip, and battle options came out as numbers to choose from.

It all looks like it works pretty smoothly, Dangond even tested out using Water Gun, but ChatGPT-4 knew it is a move Mudkip can’t learn until level 10, so didn’t use it. Interestingly, for those that hate the grind, you can just ask it to do a training montage, boosting Mudkip to level 8.

Later on, Dangond asked the software to head to a particular route and just simulate what would happen there, leading his Mudkip to become level 10, and automatically catching a Ralts, which does make catching ’em all a lot quicker, but removes a lot of the challenge. There were some other problems along the way, like the software not knowing the position of certain routes and towns. At one point it also didn’t know that Nincada is Bug/Ground type, and didn’t account for extra damage when Mudkip used Water Gun, but it did take these things into account when it was corrected.

ChatGPT is being used in a variety of ways at a point in time where AI-driven software is becoming more popular, and more powerful. Recently it was used to solve a Fortnite mystery, but ultimately its use in games won’t produce anything like a GTA-killer any time soon.

• Tesla plans to open 3,500 of its fast-charging plugs to all electric-car owners by the end of 2024. 
• Until now, Tesla’s Supercharger network was only for Tesla owners in the US. 
• Some experts say the plan could boost Tesla’s brand and ultimately help it sell more cars. 

If you own any electric car that isn’t a Tesla, you’ve probably gazed longingly at the brand’s sleek Supercharger stations, which are common and famously easy to use, but historically off-limits to outsiders. 

But that’s all changing. Tesla has decided to open up thousands of its roadside fast-charging plugs to all electric-vehicle owners by the end of 2024. The move brings Elon Musk’s firm a new revenue stream and allows it to access public funding for charging infrastructure. Some industry experts also think welcoming outsiders into Tesla’s walled garden could be a smart marketing move, particularly for a company that rejects traditional advertising. 

According to Loren McDonald, CEO of EV industry consultancy EVAdoption, the Supercharger network serves as Tesla’s single biggest marketing tactic. Light-years ahead of other charging providers in terms of reliability, convenience, and number of locations, the sprawling network helps relieve the anxieties of ditching gasoline and attracts buyers. 

Inviting owners of electric Fords and Porsches to plug in at some locations may be Musk’s crafty way of building the Tesla brand and showcasing its technology to potential customers, McDonald told Insider. 

“That additional brand exposure is probably a big part of the reasoning behind this,” he said. 

Sam Abuelsamid, an auto industry analyst at Guidehouse Insights, agrees that expanding Supercharger access could help Tesla sell more cars. Charging takes a while and is generally a more social activity than quickly grabbing gas, presenting an opportunity for Supercharger patrons to get familiar with Tesla’s vehicles, he told Insider. 

“Because Tesla doesn’t have traditional dealerships, there are a lot fewer places where you can just stop and browse,” he said. 

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.

After years of tremendous sales growth, Tesla has faced questions recently about how whether the voracious appetite for its cars will last. This year, it’s slashed prices across its lineup in a bid to move more vehicles. 

The charging plan is a gamble and could also have the opposite effect, experts said. Some Tesla drivers may realize they don’t need to buy from Musk to reap the benefits of Supercharger infrastructure. They may peek inside a Rivian R1T or schmooze with a Volkswagen ID.4 owner and realize a different vehicle better fits their needs.

“When the Ford Mustang Mach-E driver plugs in next to the Tesla Model Y driver and they chat, who knows? It could go either way,” McDonald said. 

Analysts see another risk: A boom in demand for limited charging stalls could frustrate Tesla owners by crowding popular stations. Moving forward, Tesla will need to be careful not to degrade the experience too much for its existing customers, Abuelsamid said.

“You don’t want to abandon the customer base that got you to where you are today,” he said. “But at the same time you ideally want to get some of those other potential advantages.”

I’m on a boat. The boat does not float. At least not in the traditional sense. The manufacturer says somewhat enthusiastically that “it flies.” In reality it hovers two feet above the water, propped up on stilts attached to two horizontal carbon-fiber fins—hydrofoils—that slice through the waves, raising the hull clean out of the sea. Underwater, a torpedo-shaped, battery-powered propeller mounted along the rear foil thrusts all 1.6 metric tons of the Candela C-8 forward.

The boat is out on the San Francisco Bay, zipping around in the sweet spot between two iconic Bay Area tourist destinations: the Golden Gate Bridge and Alcatraz Island. It is a sunny and balmy day, a fluke of Mediterranean conditions that’s out of character from the area’s typical vicious February chill.

Courtesy of Candela

The all-electric C-8 is a luxury watercraft engineered by Swedish maritime manufacturer Candela, but the battery is made by the EV company Polestar—a subsidiary of Geely, the Chinese conglomerate that also owns Volvo. While Polestar has focused the bulk of its efforts on land vehicles, it has partnered with Candela to give the C-8 its juice box. And it is the very same one—the boat uses the 69-kWh battery pack found in the Polestar 2. Volvo has a long history of making marine engines, but this is the first time its EV sister brand has got its feet wet. 

The C-Pod, a dual-motor cigar-shaped drive unit with contra-rotating propellers that’s been redesigned from the previous C-7 for more efficiency, launches the C-8 into a very different kind of boating experience, and is the key to the C-8’s abilities. 

With Great Power Comes Great Efficiency

One of the main challenges with direct drive electric motors is that the motor is spinning at the same speed as the propeller. Electric machines are typically most efficient at higher speeds, whereas propellers are most efficient at lower speeds. So Candela designed a drive unit that, instead of having one big motor and one big propeller delivering the torque needed, split the torque into two motors and two propellers. This means the size of both the motors and props could be reduced. A boon for a smaller propeller is the tip speed is reduced for the same rotational speed. That in turn means the C-8’s twin props can stay below the limit of cavitation (the cause of reduced performance, blade damage, vibration, and noise) even with a high rotational speed. 

Not stopping there, Candela also created a passive cooling system for the C-Pod using just the cold seawater on the outer surface of the housing—thus no need for rotating parts in the cooling system and no cooling fluids. Simpler, effective, and less to go wrong.

Such efficiency and innovative mechanics naturally drives performance. When the boat gets up to about 16 knots (that’s 18 mph for you landlubbers), it takes off, the bulk of it lifting out of the water, supported by the hydrofoils underneath. The vessel levels out, and you’re skimming above the waves, leaving barely a wisp of a wake behind. And with more of the boat out of the water, the less drag there is. The result feels more like a hovercraft than a traditional boat.

Observers spotted UFO look-alike clouds in Hawaiian skies above the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa volcanoes. 

The photos were taken on March 8 from the vantage point of the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is located near the summit of the dormant volcano Mauna Kea in Hawaii. The photos capture lenticular clouds, which are usually created downwind of a hill or mountain as strong winds blow over and around rough terrain. 

“We spotted some UFOs today! Or rather, their doppelgangers. Check out these stunning photos several Keckies took of flying saucer-shaped lenticular clouds hovering near Maunakea and Mauna Loa. Did you see them too?” the observatory wrote on Twitter (opens in new tab) on March 8. 

Related: Keck Observatory: Twin Telescopes on Mauna Kea 

Lenticular clouds — scientifically known as altocumulus standing lenticularus — generally form in the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere, parallel to the wind direction, which gives them their otherworldly appearance. 

These clouds are fairly common over the western half of the mainland due to the Rockies but relatively rare in Hawaii, according to the National Weather Service (opens in new tab). 

These strange looking clouds are sometimes mistaken for UFOs due to their smooth saucer-like shape. They formed near Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea, which reach above 13,000 feet (3,960 meters) in elevation, because strong winds are forced to flow over and around the peaks of the volcanoes. This, in turn, creates waves in the atmosphere just downwind of both of the summits. 

The photos were taken by employees at the observatory, including Rick Krejci, software engineer; Sherry Yeh, staff astronomer; Avinash Surendran, postdoctoral fellow; and Arina Rostopchina, observing assistant. 

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Students at the University of Arizona have constructed a cubesat to demonstrate what they hope will be the answer to high-speed, low-cost space communication and data transmission for small satellites. 

The two-toned antenna, serving credence to the communication device’s beach ball comparison, will launch in a stowed and folded configuration. Once in Earth orbit, the antenna will inflate using a combination of helium and argon, increasing its initial surface area to provide increased downlink speeds. 

The cubesat — “CatSat,” as the students have dubbed it — will serve a dual purpose alongside its novel antenna test. Instruments opposite the beach ball antenna will probe Earth’s ionosphere to study the propagation and changes of high-frequency radio signals above the atmosphere. Together with other onboard components, CatSat’s instruments will send down high-resolution images of our planet at speeds previously unobtainable by comparably sized cubesats. 

Related: Cubesats: Tiny payloads, huge benefits for space research

Hilliard Paige, University of Arizona systems engineering student and CatSat’s lead system engineer, sees the antenna concept as a pathfinder for future missions. “Following a successful launch, this inflatable antenna will be the first of its kind in space,” she said in an online post (opens in new tab) from the university.

“The technology demonstrated by CatSat opens the door to the possibility of future lunar, planetary and deep-space missions using cubesats,” echoed University of Arizona professor of astronomy Chris Walker. 

Through the University of Arizona’s commercialization efforts via Tech Launch Arizona, Walker co-founded a company called Freefall Aerospace, which developed the beach ball antenna. Walker was also one of the University of Arizona faculty to submit the initial CatSat proposal to NASA under the agency’s Cubesat Launch Initiative in 2019.

That proposal gained NASA’s approval, and CatSat was assigned a launch vehicle — a Firefly Aerospace Alpha rocket, which will lift off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California and deliver the small satellite to a 340-mile-high (547 kilometers), sun-synchronous orbit. If successful, CatSat’s beach ball antenna will then beam down near real-time images of Earth.

CatSat does not yet have a target launch date, though it’s expected to get one later this year, University of Arizona officials said.

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